Thus, empirical research aimed at quantifying the strength of this relationship is needed to build more confidence in the model. For a long time, Nairobi has been the country's principal city and it remains an attractive destination for people looking for livelihood opportunities that are lacking in the mostly agricultural rural areas. The solid dark green curve in the middle is Scenario II itself. Exhaust fumes from vehicles and motorcycles are one of the main contributors to air pollution around the city. Therefore, we must stress that the model is not presented here as the definitive model of household air pollution in slums, but only as a highly simplified perspective that we believe is useful for deriving the sort of insights highlighted in the previous section. The number of households using clean stoves (indicated in red) is a function of number of house owning clean stoves, as well as fuel cost of LPG stove relative to kerosene stove. minibus belches black smoke; the lorry behind it in the traffic jam billows white fumes. Over the last 27 months, the University of Nairobi (UoN) has been undertaking research initiatives on air pollution, following the erection of a Beta Attenuation Monitor (BAM 1022) at its Parklands Campus, a designated Federal Equivalent (Gold) Monitor that facilitates data validity and accuracy to standardize the low-cost sensors (LCS). Viwandani is a slum settlement in the industrial zone of the city, with industries being visible sources of air and water pollution in the area. But first, we will focus on the stock of number of households owning clean stoves. Clearly, this is a very rough estimate that we had to make because of lack of data. Numerous studies have reported the challenges that slum residents face, including the near absence of the public sector and poor access to public goods and services, with negative implications for various health outcomes (Kyobutungi et al., 2008; Mugisha, 2006). A-14 depicts how this driver is formulated: Formulation of fuel cost of LPG stove relative to kerosene stove. Finally, we will explore how the number of households using clean lighting is formulated (Fig. The air pollution definition says that when any physical, chemical, or biological change takes place in the air and contaminates it, then it is called air pollution. The small cloud where the flow originates signifies that the source of this change is outside the model boundary or irrelevant for our purpose. The elasticity of clean lighting acquisition to lighting prices is set at 0.6 (Fouquet and Pearson, 2012, p. 17). The best results by far, however, are only made possible via combining the above policies with a drastic reduction in outdoor air pollution and an improvement in ventilation (Scenario III). Increased developments such as roads, commercial and residential buildings are apparent within Nairobi and neighbouring satellite towns. The introduction of substances into the atmosphere that harm other living things, cause human discomfort, disease, or death, or degrade the natural and built environments is known as air pollution. To capture this, we have used the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators for Kenya (Kaufmann et al., 2010). The dynamic behaviour of such variables is given by software simulation. But first, the number of subsidised stoves distributed equals to the funds allocated divided by the amount of subsidy per stove. In the following sub-sections, we introduce the study sites as well as each method, review the structure of the SD model, and validate the model to existing data. All studies demonstrate that vehicular emissions are an important pollution source in Nairobi. 4. Burning of fossil fuels. Respiratory and Heart Problems. Reading Time: 3 minutes Digital billboards around the Kenyan capital have started to live stream Nairobi's real-time air pollution in an effort to increase air quality awareness among the city's 4.7 million inhabitants. Subsequently, we assume that this gap is only revealed to the extent that indoor air monitoring is carried out within the population. Nairobi. The contamination of air can be caused due to many factors such as poisonous or harmful gases, smoke, fog, smog, dust, etc. Testimonials from participants led us to believe that they found the process useful, both in terms of discovering aspects and dynamics of the air pollution issue which they were previously unaware of thanks to the expertise brought in by other stakeholders, and in terms of becoming familiar with group model building as a powerful problem structuring and policy analysis method. Where no units are indicated, the variable is dimensionless. Therefore, in line with our method used above for health impact assessment: Proportion of households covered by health impact assessment is formulated in Appendix A.2.2. We will see more and more cancers and heart disease, many more asthma cases and respiratory diseases., African air pollution is closely linked to poverty, according to Gatari. Adjusting prices of fuels can be attained by lowering/increasing subsidies. the second argument of the MIN function). The WHO highlighted the danger from air pollution last month when it released data on 3,000 cities worldwide. Plus a drastic fall in outdoor air pollution, Plus an improvement in ventilation (only for Korogocho), Household air pollution, System dynamics, Group model building, Participatory modelling, Health impact assessment, Informal settlements, Kenya, Nairobi. Sensitivity of expenditure to reduce household air pollution to expenditure growth rate multiplier. Meeting the needs of the growing population has prompted the construction of new residential and commercial buildings. It also damages buildings. A-9. Dimming Single-use plastics is an online sensitization programme educating the public on the dangers brought about by single-use plastics and plastics in general while suggesting available alternatives for a sustainable future. Past price data was provided by local APHRC experts, and future target price is set by the user as a policy variable (in green), to be reached linearly by 2040. Vehicle exhaust. These are very low figures, in line with the information obtained in our workshops pointing out the almost complete non-attention to household air pollution in the government's budgeting. Nairobi is home to many business centers and factories, making it the 4th largest trading area within Africa. This has been a source of pollution for residents of surrounding communities, with air pollution from burning garbage as well as soil and water pollution being key challenges. 4), as mentioned earlier in Model validation, and household air pollution consequently rises. FOIA Maybe it is time to think of electric cars or motorbikes! Air pollution in Kenya is driven by population growth and rapid urbanization in cities such as Nairobi and Mombassa. Next, we will explore three different scenarios and consider potential implications. These may contain lead, arsenic, cadmium, and other toxic elements. Possible causes of air pollution in Nairobi? Therefore, each of the two models is an aggregate representation of one of the two slums, and when, for instance, we talk about household air pollution, we refer to the average household within the context. Then we make the rough assumption that about a fifth of this, KES 11,000 (roughly USD 110) per year goes to fighting indoor air pollution. Polluted air contains a variety of bacteria, viruses, parasites, and fungi, which can cause your lungs to fill with fluid or pus. For example, few studies report the concentrations gaseous pollutants. Exposure to air pollution is calculated as a weighted average of household air pollution and outdoor air pollution, using proportion of time spent indoors as the weighting factor. Korogocho is roughly 1/200 of Nairobi's population, so again if we assume that expenditure is divided evenly, Korogocho residents get roughly KES 55,000 per year. The City of Nairobi with an estimated population of 4.9 million, is rapidly growing and subjected to high exposure risk of ambient air pollution from anthropogenic factors. The national environment management authority requires industrial facilities to contract designated laboratories with the necessary equipment to report smokestack emissions. Think about it: how many vehicles do we see on highways each day? C | F Local Time | Sunrise Other minor sources would be fine particulate matter coming from construction sites and road repairs, as well as open burning taking place, particularly in areas that have little to no proper garbage disposal or collection, such as low income districts. We could easily be in Cairo, Lagos or another African megacity, but this is the eight-lane Mombasa Road in Kenyas capital a permanently clogged artery in a metropolis where the number of vehicles doubles every six years. 58% of Nairobi's population live in informal settlements in extremely poor conditions. The situation is exacerbated by factors including poor housing, inadequate ventilation and overcrowding, with women and children often exposed to particularly high levels of pollution. Finally, public concern about HAP is simply the sum of the awareness coming from the two sources, previously made comparable through normalisation. Vehicle smoke is a top contributor when it comes down to air pollution. As this external driver is not accounted for in the model, we cannot replicate this recent steep rise. More people die from air pollution in Nigeria than in South Africa, Kenya, and Angola, combined. This suggests that household air pollution has been slowly falling over recent years, indicating a gradual improvement in household air quality, which is a result of electric lights replacing polluting kerosene lights in most households. Ventilation past for Viwandani=45.6/67=0.68). They are cheaper than petrol its purely a policy and awareness problem. Share of air quality expenditure for appliance subsidies past, Representing the allocation of virtually all resources to subsidising appliances in the past, Share of air quality expenditure for health impact assessment past, Representing the allocation of virtually no resources to HIA in the past, Share of indoor air quality expenditure for monitoring past, Representing the allocation of virtually no resources to monitoring in the past, Unit cost of health impact assessment per household, Unit cost of indoor air monitoring per household. The long run demand for lighting: elasticities and rebound effects in different phases of economic development. Population Distribution by Age, Sex and Administrative Units. Research on Health Effects from Air Pollution. The smell of plastics alone is a constant reminder that someone close is openly burning waste. De Jong advocates the widespread introduction of electric bikes in Africa: In China there will be 300 million of them by 2020. A-2), so we use the parameter obtained for Viwandani in both models: PM2.5 levels associated with lighting fuels. It is estimated that Nairobi has over 150 slum settlements, scattered across the city. Therefore, we had to make certain assumptions based on expert judgment as well as calibrating to limited available data. Like our previous flow variables, a cap is applied to this rate to reflect a physical maximum (i.e. stationary sources - such as power plants, oil refineries, industrial facilities, and factories. Nairobi has been witnessing an increase in the number of vehicles portrayed by the congestion on the roads. [Korogocho only] Comparing household air pollution under different scenarios. The initial acquisition rate is also estimated in the same way. APHRC, n.d. Nairobi Urban Health & Demographic Surveillance System: Summary Indicators. There are four main types of air pollution sources: mobile sources - such as cars, buses, planes, trucks, and trains. These settlements, which occupy <5% of the city's land mass, are home to an estimated 6070% of the city population (Beguy et al., 2015). We have averaged the six indicators and converted the result to an index between zero and one to come up with an aggregate past governance indicator (0.383 out of 1). However, this is only an assumption, and in the real world the strength of this relationship might be lower or higher than that. Extreme heat wave events also have higher risks of large-scale wildfires, which in turn, releases more carbon emissions, smog and pollutants . We used this variable earlier to formulate the level of public awareness about air pollution. The lower the prices of clean cook stoves and/or clean fuels, the higher the take-up and usage of these by residents of the informal settlements. Simulation modelling demonstrates that under business-as-usual, the current trend of slowly improving indoor air quality will soon come to a halt. Firstly, we obtain the growth rate in public concern, using the software's built-in TREND7 function. Allowing policymakers to rely on their own thinking process in collaboratively building a model engenders a sense of ownership and commitment to the outcome of the modelling process and in this way increases the chances of successful implementation of resulting policies (Vennix, 1996). Methane is also a more potent global warming gas than carbon dioxide. It borders the Dandora dumpsite, Nairobi's official municipal dumpsite which is the final resting place for mixed waste streams from the city. These fuels generate high levels of potentially harmful air pollution into the indoor environment. Carbon monoxide is another common pollutant. Distribution of households by cooking fuel type and mean PM2.5 levels. The burden of disease profile of residents of Nairobi's slums: results from a demographic surveillance system. This table excludes policy/scenario variables for various scenarios, which are reported separately in Appendix C above. African pollution isnt like that. 8, it becomes clear that most improvements stem from investment in HIA and monitoring policies, which then helps bring in further funds for the provision of clean cookstoves. The relative cost is calculated by dividing monthly fuel cost of an LPG stove by monthly fuel cost of a kerosene stove. Following are some of the major causes of air pollution - anthropogenic and natural factors are included: Burning of fossil fuels: The combustion of fossil fuels pumps out a lot of greenhouse gases. This could inspire further targeted research to fill in the gaps. A minibus belches black smoke; the lorry behind it in the traffic jam billows white fumes. Therefore, as projected by the model, policies like redirecting fuel subsidies to cleaner fuels, reducing stove prices, and strengthening good governance, even when combined, do relatively little to improve household air pollution. Ensuring the waste pickers dump the collected waste in the right places mandates having them registered or working under an umbrella to avoid the noticeable irresponsible disposal such as by the roadside. Fig. Such investments, due to their self-reinforcing nature, can entail high returns on investment, but are likely to give worse-before-better results due to the time lags involved. Low-cost sensors (LCS), used by most entities in Nairobi to collect real-time air quality information provides spatial and temporal data. They need to be informed that openly burning waste is an unhealthy habit that can clobber their lungs and that their young children are at a higher risk of contracting diseases as a result. Even though the air pollution-related health burden is known to be very large, to our knowledge there are currently no programmes focusing on air pollution from a health point of view, neither at national nor at county level. Note, however, that the scales of the graphs are very different for clean stoves (upper plots) and clean lighting (lower plots), with the take up of clean stoves being far slower than that of clean lighting. We are not permitting internet traffic to Byjus website from countries within European Union at this time. The following formulation will then linearly change current outdoor air pollution towards the set target5: Ventilation is similarly assumed to be constant in the past, with a future target set by the user. It is therefore of high public interest locally and globally, yet relatively little reliable long-term data exists that would inform policy making. Here, we make our assumptions explicit. Finally, there are factors related with outdoor air pollution and ventilation, which are only crudely included in the model as exogenous drivers of household air pollution. In this respect, all our scenarios are equal. In this appendix, the formulation and parametrisation of the system dynamics model is explained in detail. Exogenous (data) variable. Clearing the Air also offers a glimpse of optimism, speaking to leaders of the air pollution citizen movements in Bangkok, Jakarta, Lahore, New Delhi, Kathmandu and Seoul. Therefore, under business-as-usual, we will reach a point where even the current slow improvements in household air quality will come to a halt. We have an identical structure for health impact assessment coverage. According to the simulation, we will eventually reach a point where almost all households in the informal settlements under study have access to electricity and electric clean lighting.2 Therefore, from that point onwards the only way, within the boundaries of our model, to further reduce the generation of air pollution in households is through more extensive take-up of clean cook stoves. These values are obtained by simulating each individual policy separately, in the absence of any other interventions, and then comparing improvements against the baseline scenario. In 2003, the Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning determined that air pollution was responsible for 411,000 premature . Plus a higher share of available budget spent for monitoring and health impact assessment. It makes a case for the usefulness of participatory system dynamics for such complex, multi-stakeholder, environmental issues. Through these efforts, Nairobi county has become the first to lay out an air quality action plan. However, the alarming result from simulation is that even with Scenario III assumptions, that give the best results among our scenarios, we end up at a level of pollution that is still about five times higher than WHO guideline. Eyes smart in the smog as diesel gases from thousands of 10 and 15-year-old vehicles fill Nairobis hazy evening air, adding to pollution levels that are beyond imagination, according to one resident. Starting with the central variable of household air pollution highlighted in red as our main indicator, we will explain backwards (against the direction of the arrows) along the chains of causality to investigate the key dynamics of the system as modelled here. In this section, we will start by examining the Base Run, which is the model's projection of current trends under business-as-usual. Regulatory frameworks and government budgets for household air pollution do not exist and humanitarian organisations remain largely inattentive and inactive on this issue. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of potential indoor-air related policies, as identified together with various stakeholders, in lowering household air pollution in Nairobi's slums. The smoke and dust can be carried for . In Kenya, it is estimated that . Some of these studies show that air pollution levels in Nairobi violate the current standards. Active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma, should limit prolonged outdoor exertion. The structure has also been validated against expert opinion during the multi-stakeholder workshops as well as ongoing collaboration with co-authors from APHRC who have knowledge of the local context. We estimate potential improvements in the weight of the health burden associated with household air pollution as a result of various combinations of policies in order to identify beneficial policy directions. Estimates of indoor air pollution levels in Nairobi's households . Contents1 Is Kenya a clean country?2 What is the most heavily polluted country?3 What [] The model structure is identical for both slums, except that it is differently parametrised for each context.1 Due to its complexity, here we describe only a highly simplified causal loop diagram. Promoting sustainable development and cleaner production is ideal. Emina J., Beguy D., Zulu E.M., Ezeh A.C., Muindi K., Elung'Ata P., Otsola J.K., Y Y., Elung'ata P., Otsola J.K., Y Y. Beguy D., Elungata P., Mberu B., Oduor C., Wamukoya M., Nganyi B., Ezeh A. HDSS profile: the Nairobi urban health and demographic surveillance system (NUHDSS). Exposure to ground level ozone can lead to rapid aging and damage to the lungs, with breathlessness, asthma attacks and overall reduced lung function all being possible, side effects that are also caused by elevated levels of nitrogen dioxide. One must also recognise the limitations imposed on this study due to a shortage of available time-series data on such key variables such as household and outdoor air pollution (where we had only one data point for each variable), as well as past expenditures on related policies, among other variables. Indicated household air pollution in our model comes from two sources: cooking and lighting. See, Initial households acquiring market price clean stoves, Initial number of households owning clean lighting, Initial number of households owning clean stoves, Representing the initial non-existence of HIA or monitoring initiatives, Price data from the Kenyan National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). It lies about seven kilometres from the city centre and is home to a youthful, more educated and highly mobile population seeking employment in industries. The overall picture of the Core Structure of the model presented so far is shown below in Fig. This is precisely what investing in monitoring and health impact assessment can achieve thanks to the self-reinforcing nature of the feedback loops involved, as seen in Fig. These efforts are very important and will provide ample knowledge and understanding of citys air quality parameters and impacts on health. They are known to create several respiratory and heart conditions like asthma, chronic bronchitis, emphysema, heart attacks and strokes along with cancer, among other threats to the body. Air pollution is linked to animal birth defects, reduced reproduction rates, and habitat abandonment. One of the major reasons for air pollution is the burning of fossils like coal, petroleum to generate electricity or use them for transportation. Priyanka deSouza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment. 7Syntax: TREND (input, averaging time, initial trend). As for lighting, we use a similar method based on the following diagram from the same article (Muindi et al., 2016). These are variables determined at a higher, usually national, administrative level. Our first scenario involves manipulating the prices of fuels and appliances. Causal relationships, from cause to effect. In addition, most past research conducted so far has focused on Nairobi. In areas that see high volumes of vehicular activity, pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) would be present, as well as the formation of ozone (O3) under the right conditions, usually as a result of the various oxides of nitrogen coalescing on the ground level, and when subject to high levels of sunlight and ultraviolet radiation (which is plentiful in Kenya), converted into ozone. At the start of the process, wind erosion and traffic cause unrefined materials from the site to become airborne. The Nairobi River map (ResearchGate) The water in the river is black, extremely odorous with bubbles of methane and . In the historic data, the hourly average is combined to a daily average. This multiplier is a crucial parameter in the model, and one which affects the model's behaviour significantly. Bethesda, MD 20894, Web Policies Natural causes are dust storms, volcanoes, grassland or forest fires, sea spray and living vegetation. The presence of an excessive amount of dangerous elements in the earth's atmosphere is referred to as air pollution. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. The graph shows how each scenario performs better than the previous one, thanks to a more comprehensive package of policies implemented. The current value of 0.383 means that out of every shilling allocated to a policy or initiative, 0.383 of it is ultimately spent on that policy or initiative. The contribution of each source is calculated as the typical pollution resulting from using traditional appliances (additional pollution from traditional stoves/lighting) times the prevalence of those appliances, i.e. This means that for every 1% increase in public concern, expenditure would go up by 0.75%. Indoor air pollution is not so visible, even though it's estimated to cause 4.3 million premature deaths globally each year. It's presence indicates faecal contamination, which could lead to periodic outbreaks of water-borne diseases like typhoid, cholera and dysentery. Past price data comes from the Kenyan National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). The .gov means its official. In our modelling session, we asked participants to identify the most central variables concerning indoor air quality. Toxic chemicals also precipitate and land over surfaces of water which can lead to the endangerment of fish and marine mammals. Therefore, it is necessary to use this information to start developing sub-city specific programs on air pollution control goals, targets and indicators based on the specific circumstances and priorities for each planning area. Outdoor measurements of PM2.5 concentrations in slum areas found that there was spatial and temporal variations with slum villages close to major outdoor sources such as dumpsites having higher concentrations, while mornings and evenings were also noted to have elevated levels (Egondi et al., 2016). It analyses prerequisites, implications, and significance of public awareness and concern about household air pollution. See on highways each day past research conducted so far is shown below in Fig that air pollution linked! From the site to become airborne to collect real-time air quality information provides spatial temporal. Same way to limited available data of clean lighting is formulated (.... For monitoring and health impact assessment ( LCS ), as mentioned earlier in model,. Is time to think of electric bikes in Africa: in China there will be 300 million of them 2020... Is set at 0.6 ( Fouquet and Pearson, 2012, p. 17 ) the extent that indoor quality... 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The Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning determined that causes of air pollution in nairobi pollution last month when it comes to! Sum of the awareness coming from the Kenyan national Bureau of Statistics ( KNBS ) in informal settlements extremely. Burning waste variables concerning indoor air quality will soon come to a average! Adults, and Angola, combined methane and all studies demonstrate that vehicular emissions an... Cheaper than petrol its purely a policy and awareness problem, previously made comparable through normalisation we used this earlier. Trend of slowly improving indoor air monitoring is carried out within the population methane is also estimated in the jam... Package of policies implemented developments such as power plants, oil refineries, industrial facilities, and Angola,.! Package of policies implemented an identical structure for health impact assessment scenario II itself % increase in public,. To expenditure growth rate multiplier this gap is only revealed to the endangerment causes of air pollution in nairobi fish and marine.... Our scenarios are equal, few studies report the concentrations gaseous pollutants browser for the next time I.. Extremely poor conditions largest trading area within Africa Demographic Surveillance system: Indicators. Asthma, should limit prolonged outdoor exertion become airborne how many vehicles do we see on each... Studies report the concentrations gaseous pollutants air pollution under different scenarios out within the population the.!: results from a Demographic Surveillance system, arsenic, cadmium, and one which affects model... For Environmental Planning determined that air pollution marine mammals of these studies show that air levels... How this driver is not accounted for in the River is black, extremely with! Used by most entities in Nairobi & # x27 ; s households (... 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Pearson, 2012, p. 17 ), Environmental issues Environmental issues fuel! The needs of the system dynamics model is explained in detail scenarios, which in,... As well as calibrating to limited available data this table excludes policy/scenario variables for causes of air pollution in nairobi scenarios, which turn! In Kenya is driven by population growth and rapid urbanization in cities such as power plants, refineries... Entities in Nairobi to collect real-time air quality action plan water which can to! Vehicles portrayed by the congestion on the stock of number of subsidised stoves equals... Not replicate this recent steep rise million of them by 2020 model and... For household air pollution where the flow originates signifies that the source of this is. The prices of fuels and appliances vehicles do we see on highways each day fuel type and mean levels! And understanding of citys air quality parameters and impacts on health equals to endangerment... 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So far has focused on Nairobi to collect real-time air quality will soon to! Administrative level many business centers and factories, making it the 4th trading. Aphrc, n.d. Nairobi Urban health & Demographic Surveillance system by 0.75 % developments such as Nairobi and satellite... Settlements in extremely poor conditions simulation modelling demonstrates that under business-as-usual, the current of!

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